Lula flips 2.2 million vote deficit to claim fourth presidency

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva secured a fourth term as president of Brazil on Sunday, defeating Flávio Bolsonaro in a runoff that reversed an earlier deficit.

With 99% of ballots counted, Lula held 51.75% of the vote compared to 48.25% for his 45-year-old opponent. The final margin placed Lula 4.3 million votes ahead. That total represented a complete reversal from the first round in early October, where Lula had trailed by 2.2 million votes.

No candidate who placed second in the first round has ever won the runoff since Brazil returned to democracy in the 1980s. Lula, who turns 81 on Tuesday, had faced doubts about his political future after the initial loss. Progressive voters in Brazil spent three weeks uncertain of the outcome before the second round concluded.

The shift in results correlated with changes in voter turnout. Abstention rates fell from a record 21.08% in the first round to 19.21% in the runoff. Lula’s allies had identified increased participation as a key factor because his supporters often live farther from polling stations, making travel a barrier during the first vote.

Reginaldo Lopes, a key ally of Lula, told The Guardian that he felt incredible upon confirmation of the result. He described the win as a message to the world regarding the extreme right and stated that Brazil would now reorganize democratic forces.

The defeat marks a setback for the Bolsonaro family. Jair Bolsonaro, the father of the losing candidate, is serving a 27-year sentence for plotting a coup. He is under house arrest in Brasília and had hoped for release and a government role if his son won. In Brasília, family members watched the count with anger and bewilderment.

The result also disrupted plans for US President Donald Trump, who viewed the Bolsonaro family as a major ally. Trump had expected Brazil to join a group of pro-Trump leaders in Latin America, including Abelardo de la Espriella in Colombia, Daniel Noboa in Ecuador, José Antonio Kast in Chile, and Javier Milei in Argentina. On Sunday evening, hundreds gathered on Paulista Avenue in São Paulo to watch the count, waving red flags. Camilo Buarque, a 35-year-old supporter, said the result represented democracy.

Many voters in São Paulo cited an apparent attempt by pro-Bolsonaro politicians to disrupt the vote by sabotaging public transport in areas that lean toward Lula. Lucas Lopes, 32, called the effort another coup attempt. Caio Marques, a 40-year-old photographer from Franca, noted that the right had failed in the first round but woke up in the second.