Likud leadership fractures over turnout odds ahead of Tuesday vote

Likud party members are split on their chances of winning the election scheduled for Tuesday, October 27.

The division centers on the reliability of internal polling conducted by Shlomo Filber. One Likud source described the internal sentiment as a mix of high confidence and lingering doubt. That source noted, “Either Momo comes out a king, or Momo goes home. It’s one or the other.” The optimistic camp relies on Filber’s forecasts, while skeptics worry about voter mobilization efforts in the opposition camp.

Party officials point to a surge in activity by nonprofits and organizations that support parties opposed to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. These groups are reportedly spending large sums to boost turnout among rival voters. The efforts include social media campaigns, street signs, field events, and transportation for Arab voters. The organizations also worked to bring Israelis living abroad back to vote. A party insider labeled this activity “the nonprofits affair on steroids,” arguing it creates a support network outside standard party financing rules.

Likud also criticized the Central Elections Committee for its enforcement priorities. Party sources claimed the committee focused heavily on limiting campaign videos and the use of public resources. They argued it paid too little attention to the spending by these outside organizations. However, the sources did not provide documentation for the funding amounts they cited or for the claim that the activity violated the law.

As the vote approaches, Likud is preparing a large-scale ground operation for Election Day. The party aims to prevent right-wing votes from drifting to smaller parties. Negotiations with Brig.-Gen. (res.) Ofer Winter, head of the People of Israel party, failed to secure his exit from the race. Winter maintained his candidacy even after Rabbi Eli Sadan issued a statement backing him. Likud is now courting supporters of the joint ticket led by Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha.

Rabbi Abergel’s Ahi party has already withdrawn from the race following talks with Likud. During those discussions, the parties raised the possibility of legislation allowing Ahi to name a deputy minister. The election date was set for October 27 to allow the current government to complete its full term. A survey published days before the vote found that nearly one-third of Israeli voters remained undecided.